Livermore Homes Blog

Towards the end of May, I tried to guess what the total homes sold or in contract would be for the entire month in Livermore.  My prediction was between 100 and 105, but  the actual total was 109, so I missed it by that much.  Then I noticed this post on the Huffington post that gave five reasons, why the housing market should turn around by the end of the 2008.  One reason he gave was that this is a Presidential election year and with a national yearning for change, who ever gets elected will give a boost to the mood of the country and the economy.  And a second specific reason was that housing prices in some areas have fallen enough to attract investors, who can get a positive cash flow by turning them into rental properties.  Livermore is getting close to that price point, Brentwood and other nearby towns are already there.  So a week away from the end of June, here are my predictions for Livermore and Pleasanton, cities sharing a common border but separated by a $200,000 to $300,000 pricing differential.  Livermore should see a total of 83 pendings and sales of everything.  That’s down from May, but an increase over June of 2007, when we had 72 sales.  Bank owned properties and short sales make up about 42% of all sales, which is hasn’t changed much in the last few months.  Also overall inventory continues to drop and is actually below what it was last year at this time.  Again these are free predictions not necessarily accurate ones, but buyers are starting to see a change in the Livermore housing market and there are not as many perfect homes to choose from as there use to be.  While short sales and REO properties make up 28.6% of the active inventory in Livermore, Pleasanton has only 17 such properties on the market or just 6.6%.  This is keeping the Pleasanton housing market from having a bigger pricing correction then Livermore.  The current housing inventory has remained stable in June, but sales have been sliding the last couple of months and my prediction is that total contracts and sales will drop from May’s 66 to about 60.  And that trend, we see in Pleasanton of rising inventory and falling sales, will just by the very nature of the market place cause downward pressure on prices. 

So if you are a buyer and want Livermore, our recommendation is buy now, especially if you have specific needs like a particular school or a specific yard need or number of bedrooms, because we are seeing fewer choices in Livermore.  However if you want Pleasanton, I think you still have time to shop around, prices will still be softening over the summer.